증시 대담
It's time now for a look at the market action on this Monday, and for that I'm joined by Dr. Hwang Seiwoon, research fellow at the Korea Capital Market Institute.
Dr. Hwang, thanks for joining us today.
You're welcome.
We start the week with some more turbulence on the trade front. As we just heard, Japan will be restricting its exports to Korea of high-tech materials used in displays and semiconductors. What does this mean for Korea and Korean companies?
At the G20 last week, President Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to a truce in their countries' trade war. How have markets responded, and what do you see in their deal?
The Osaka truce has reduced the probability of tension escalation in the near term, and the results slightly exceeded market expectations. Though there’s a lack of detail over the next steps for U.S.-China talks, many were surprised by Trump’s decision to allow Huawei to buy some products from U.S. suppliers. Stocks rallied and bonds retreated on Monday as a thaw in the Sino-U.S. trade dispute tempered risks to the global economy.
However, I don’t think the likelihood of a deal has necessarily increased. It is probably in the best interest of both parties to keep the talks running as long as they can. It is still unclear where the talks might go.
We are now in the second half of 2019. What's the outlook for the global economy for the reset of this year? Are there any particular things we need to watch?
In the second half of 2019, I expect the global and local economic slowdown to continue steadily if the U.S-China trade dispute does not make a dramatic progress. And the uncertainty in this frontier is still pretty high.
The U.S.-China trade talks are one of the most important events in the second half of 2019. Even after agreeing to resume trade talks with China, President Trump said no timeline existed for reaching a deal and suggested that the two sides remained as far apart as they were when talks broke up in May.
The number of the rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and their timing are another important events to watch carefully. The rate cuts by the Fed will improve investors’ sentiment, while they can put more pressure on the major central banks.
Alright, Dr. Hwang. That's where we'll have to leave it today.
Thanks so much for coming on. We appreciate your insights.
